My bracket was one of two things this year. Crazy enough to be close to perfect or crazy enough to be the worst bracket I have put together in my 18 years. First round upsets like 14 seeded Harvard over 3 seeded New Mexico and 15 seeded Florida Gulf Coast over 2 seeded (and my Champion) Georgetown had my bracket gasping for air early. It never recovered. Those two games were enough to make my bracket be the worst in 18 years. Other hopeful but not laughably unlikely picks like the promising 4 seed from the Midwest region Saint Louis University to knock off the top seed Louisville or thinking that Gonzaga would come in with a chip on their shoulder and make it to Atlanta, firmly put the nails in the coffin in my bracket. But maybe by reviewing my bracket's performance and the history of the teams selected into 68 squad field of the 2013 tourney, I can give my (and your) bracket a fighting chance for next year and years to come.
Lets first look at the Midwest Region. The seeds were as follows. (1) Louisville, (2) Duke, (3) Michigan State, (4) Saint Louis, (5) Oklahoma State, (6) Memphis, (7) Creighton, (8) Colorado St., (9) Missouri, (10) Cincinnati, (11) St. Mary's, (12) Oregon, (13) New Mexico State, (14) Valparaiso, (15) Albany, (16) North Carolina A&T. The only "surprise" was (12) Oregon advancing to the Sweet Sixteen by beating first (5) Oklahoma State and then (4) Saint Louis. But it really wasn't that much of a surprise. In last year's bracket, two (12) seeds advanced; VCU and South Florida beat Wichita State and Temple respectively. Oregon was hot too. They had just won three straight to win the PAC-12 Tournament Championship. Oklahoma State lost to an overrated Kansas State team in their Big 12 Tournament. The Cowboys had extreme talent in Marcus Smart, Le'Bryan Nash, and Markel Brown but had lost to Kansas St. twice. Although beating Kansas in Lawrence was a great win, that was really the only big win that they had. They lost a lot of games that a team with this talent should have won like at Virginia Tech, where they lost by ten, on December 1st and then later January 12th against Oklahoma and once more on the 21st of January against Baylor. This coupled with the fact that Oregon was a hot team made this 12 over 5 pick a relatively easy one. The more surprising victory (and disheartening) was (12) Oregon's victory over (4) Saint Louis. The guard play was really the story. Damyean Dotson went 5-6 from 3 point range with a total of 23 points for the Ducks. Dotson's stellar performance coupled with the fact that, again, Oregon was hot, makes the Ducks' Sweet Sixteen campaign easier to understand. Lessons learned from the Midwest Region: 1) Look for a (12) seed to advance into the Sweet Sixteen from now on.
Now to the upset ridden West Region. The seeds are as follows: (1) Gonzaga, (2) Ohio State, (3) New Mexico, (4) Kansas State, (5) Wisconsin, (6) Arizona, (7) Notre Dame, (8) Pittsburgh, (9) Wichita St., (10) Iowa State, (11) Belmont, (12) Ole Miss, (13) La Salle, (14) Harvard, (15) Iona, (16) Southern. Upsets were all over this region. (12) Ole Miss over (5) Wisconsin and (13) La Salle over (4) Kansas St. But the bracket buster of them all, at least for me, was (14) Harvard over (3) New Mexico. Ignore the fact that BPI said that the Mountain West Conference was the best conference. That's ludicrous. It was the Big 10 and Big East all the way this year. As its been in recent years. Looking back I realized that the New Mexico Lobos were Gonzaga with a worse record. Meaning that they were by far the best team in their conference and cushioned their record by beating everyone in their conference. They didn't play anybody! The best teams they played were Saint Louis, who they lost to by 14, Colorado State, who they did beat twice, and UNLV, who they were 2-1 against. They also beat Cincinnati who was a tournament team. For a three seed, that's an unimpressive 5-2 record against good to average teams. The fact they didn't play anybody was compounded by the fact that New Mexico was 172nd in the NCAA in scoring with 67.4 points per game. They struggled to score! This upset was clearly more about the fact that New Mexico was overrated rather than Harvard playing well. Another upset was (12) Ole Miss over (5) Wisconsin. This game was decided by who was the hotter team. (12) Ole Miss just came off three straight victories to win the SEC Championship over Florida. (5) Wisconsin had just lost to Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship. Simple as that. (12) Ole Miss was hotter. The other Cinderella candidate was (13) La Salle. In the three years since the First Four, a play-in winner has gone on to advance into the third round and one into the Final Four. In 2011 VCU won the play-in game and eventually went on to wear the glass slipper as Cinderella advanced all the way to the Final Four. Also in 2012 it was South Florida beating California in the First Four and then going on to beat Temple. This year it was (13) La Salle. They advanced to the Sweet Sixteen based on their guard play. Ramon Galloway led this team in scoring with 17.1 points per game and also had 3.8 assists per game. While (12) Ole Miss was hot, (13) La Salle had developed a small streak of their own which, with better guard play, was able to propel to an eventual loss to the surprising (9) Wichita State who staked their claim in this year's tournament by demolishing (8) Pittsburgh in the first round. They, unlike (3) New Mexico, could score consistently to match their "Play Angry" defense. Especially when they hit from behind the arch. Lessons learned from this year's South Region: 1) Look for good experienced guard play. 2) Look for a play-in winner to advance. 3) Great defense means little if you can't score.
While the West Region put a lot of strain on my bracket, the South Region busted my bracket's back. The seeds were as follows: (1) Kansas, (2) Georgetown, (3) Florida, (4) Michigan, (5) VCU, (6) UCLA, (7) San Diego St., (8) UNC, (9) Villanova, (10) Oklahoma, (11) Minnesota, (12) Akron, (13) South Dakota State, (14) Northwestern State, (15) Florida Gulf Coast, (16) Western Kentucky. I would like to personally thank (15) FGCU coach Andy Enfield and players Sherwood Brown, Bernard Thompson, Brett Comer, and the rest of "Dunk City" for two things. One part of my thanks goes for now making it harder to pick brackets because suddenly a 15 seed beating a 2 seed is becoming the norm as three such upsets have occurred in the past two tournaments. Secondly, I want to thank you for knocking off my, very outrageous yet individually warranted, champion, (2) Georgetown. But I should have seen it coming. Earlier in the season they beat an eventual 2 seed in the NCAA tournament, Miami (FL). And they could score the ball. And they were led by three talented guards in Brown, Thompson, and Comer. A recurring theme. (2) Georgetown had their own faults too. Since 2008, (2) Georgetown hadn't made it past the second round losing to Davidson in '08 in the second round, not making the tournament in '09, Ohio in '10 in the first round, VCU in the first round of '11, NC State in the second round of the '12 tournament, and this year in the first round to (15) Florida Gulf Coast. Factoring in the win over Miami earlier in the year, the outstanding guard play, and a team's recent history, it doesn't seem that far fetched (15) Florida Gulf Coast advanced. With three 15 over 2 upsets in the past two years, be looking for match-ups that may show a 2 seed is weak. A predictable upset was (11) Minnesota over (6) UCLA. Like a 12 seed over a 5 seed match up, a 11 over a 6 is pretty regular every year. In 2012 NC State beat San Diego St. and Colorado beat UNLV. This year was no different. (6) UCLA's weakness was its rebounding. They were 97th in the country in rebounding. (11) Minnesota was ranked 17th in the country in rebounding. A statistic like this shows the difference of physicality between the two teams. (11) Minnesota won by 20 and were the more physical team. Lessons learned from the South Region: 1) A 15 beating a 2 may not be as crazy as we have grown up thinking. 2) Rebounding shows the physicality difference between the two teams, the more physical team usually fairs better.
Finally we have reached the East Region. The seeds are as follows: (1) Indiana, (2) Miami, (3) Marquette, (4) Syracuse, (5) UNLV, (6) Butler, (7) Illinois, (8) NC State, (9) Temple, (10) Colorado, (11) Bucknell, (12) California, (13) Montana, (14) Davidson, (15) Pacific, (16) James Madison. The only major upset was (12) California over (5) UNLV. This game had the recurring theme of guard play. Alan Crabbe led (12) California with a game high 19 points while UNLV star forward Mike Moser was almost non-existent with only 5 points. This is another twelve five match up that was all due to guard play. One side note. ALWAYS from now on look for Butler to advance. Unless the match up is exceedingly difficult, then you should look more carefully at that match up. But Brad Stevens is becoming the younger Tom Izzo of March. Butler is now, consistently, a really tough out. VCU is also throwing their name in that mix as well. Shaka Smart's style of play is taxing on the opponent and he is quickly building his program into another consistent, tough out in the NCAA Tourney. Lessons from the East Region: 1) Almost always look for Butler and/or VCU to advance.
The Final Four this year was comprised of (1) Louisville, (9) Wichita State, (4) Michigan, and (4) Syracuse. As I beat the dead horse once more, guard play resonates throughout all of these teams. (1) Louisville and (4) Michigan have arguably the two best back courts in the game with Siva and Smith for the Cardinals and Burke and Hardaway Jr. for the Wolverines. Russ Smith has paced the scoring for (1) Louisville by scoring over 20 points in their 5 games placing them in the championship game. Peyton Siva (4) Michigan was criticized by their lack of an inside game but Freshman Mitch McGary has answered that question by having the month of his life and becoming my new favorite college basketball player in the process. Nevertheless while the emerging presence of McGary has been huge, let's remember their point GUARD. Wooden Player of the Year Winner Trey Burke. Burke has been the heart and soul of this Michigan team all year averaging 18.8 points per game with 6.8 assists per game and has continued his stellar play in the tournament capping it off by playing a phenomenal Championship game by scoring 24 points. However (1) Louisville guard Peyton Siva and Luke Hancock were too much as they combined for 40 points to lead the Cardinals to victory Notice how these two teams have the best two back courts in the country? Yeah, they also played in the National Championship last night. Coincidence? I think not.
To recap, let's look at the 7 things to remember when filling out future brackets. 1) Look for a 12 seed to sneak into the Sweet Sixteen. 2) Look for a potential play in winners to advance. 3) Great defense is limited in upside if you can't score. 4) Use history and match-up to spot 15 seeds upsetting 2 seeds. 5) Rebounding shows physicality. The more physical team usually wins in closely seeded games. 6) Butler and VCU are almost automatic first round picks. 7) Last and most important but certainly not least, guard play is essential in order for a team to make a run. Keep these in mind when filling out future brackets, as all of us bracketeers continue to strive for perfection.
All stats from ESPN.com
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